Home Buying News - February 13, 2009 -- If you've turned on the news in the last 12 hours, you've probably heard that the Senate just passed the $838 billion economic stimulus plan that President Obama has been pushing. Here's what the new stimulus package means to home buyers and mortgage shoppers. The details of the stimulus plan have not been fully worked out, because there are currently two versions of it. There's a version that just passed in the Senate, and a second version of the bill that was passed by the House. The next step for the president and congressional leaders is to merge the two into a single economic stimulus package that will go into effect.
If you plan to get a mortgage loan and buy a home in the near future, there are some relevant parts of the stimulus plan you should know about. We did some digging into those particular parts of the plan, and here is what we have found.
Part 1 - Stimulus for the Economy
Let me begin by saying that this is a selective list of items included in this legislation. It's a massive economic plan with hundreds of components, most of which are designed to create jobs, provide tax cuts for individuals and families, and bolster our country's infrastructure. These are merely the parts of the stimulus package we thought were most relevant to future home buyers and mortgage shoppers.
Tax Relief -- A large of the funding from this bill (more than a third, according to Senator Harry Reid) will go toward tax cuts for middle-class families. This is a scaled-back version of Obama's original tax cut proposal, and the result of a compromise between the parties. As is usually the case with tax cuts, this could help spur activity within the real estate markets by putting more money into consumers' pockets.
Job Creation -- Many aspects of the economic stimulus plan are intended to create jobs. This too could have an indirect influence over home-buying activity, simply by increasing the number of qualified (employed) home buyers in the country.
We are still digging through this bill and will update this page as new information is released. Now, on to the bailout.
Part 2 - Another Bank Bailout
The word "TARP" has become something of an embarrassment for government officials. The Troubled Assets Relief Program, as it is known, was a financial debacle through which the government pumped billions of taxpayer dollars into the financial industry. The idea was that this money would get the flow of credit moving again. But as we all know by now, this was not the case. Most of the banking giants used the money to shore up their own infrastructures. So much for a trickle-down theory.
So the
new bank bailout plan, introduced recently by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, has a new name as well. It is called the Financial Stability Plan (FSP). Unfortunately, as much as we want to believe they'll get it right this time around, the new plan seems to be equally shrouded by mystery and confusion. A few days ago, Tim Geithner kicked things off with a cursory press conference that left most people scratching their heads.
Slowly but surely, however, the details are beginning to emerge. Here are some of the key parts of the Financial Stability Plan:
The new plan will include efforts to buy up more of the "deteriorating assets" currently held by banks. This will paid for jointly by the government (taxpayers) and investors. A deteriorating asset, by the way, is a loan that's going bad through default.
The new bailout plan will also put more money into existing TARP programs that are intended to increase the flow of credit. If this sounds a bit vague, that's because we are having trouble finding details about it.
Thirdly, the new bailout plan will continue the time-honored tradition of simply giving money to the banks, ideally so they can loan more money to businesses and consumers. This did not work well the first time, but maybe the second time is the the charm. Before lending more money to troubled financial institutions, government officials will conduct a "stress test" to see if the banks can survive further economic downturns (i.e., so we won't be pumping money into a sinking ship).
There's one thing we feel the Treasury Department has done well this time around. They've launched a new website,
FinancialStability.gov, to increase transparency and public awareness of where this money is going. If you recall, the original TARP plan under George W. Bush had a cloak of mystery built into it that essentially said "Don't ask where the money is going." This new bailout plan has a new website to share information on the program. It still had a "coming soon" message on it, at the time of this article, but we are hopeful. What else can we be at this point?
How Does It Apply to Home Buying and Mortgages?
The tax cuts built into the stimulus package will have a slight but positive effect on the real estate markets, simply by boosting the spending power of consumers. But jobless rates are still soaring, so there's that to consider as well. If the Financial Stability Plan achieves the desired goal, banks might be more willing to give mortgage loans (some have clamped down on their lending, even to well-qualified borrowers).
But despite the new legislation coming out of Washington, the two biggest motivators for home buyers are the following:
- Low interest rates -- As of right now, a well-qualified borrower could get a 30-year fixed rate mortgage with a rate in the low 5% range. That's lower than the rates have been in decades. Most mortgage predictions expect this trend to continue throughout 2009.
- Low home prices -- We haven't found the bottom of the housing market yet, but we are close. As a result prices in some areas are as low as they've been for many years. They might not be this low again in our lifetimes.
So regardless of what the stimulus plan and the new bank bailout do, it's still a
good time to buy a home for qualified borrowers. When you combine the low interest rates with the relatively low home prices, you end up with a lot of buying power. So why not use it? When the market begins to turn upward again, we won't see buying conditions like these for a long time -- if ever.
Labels: Economy