Boise Housing Forecast for 2022: No Inventory, Soaring Prices

The real estate market in Boise, Idaho has shifted into ludicrous speed.

Home prices across the metro area have risen well into the double digits over the past year or so. And looking forward, forecasts for the Boise housing market predict more of the same going into 2022.

It’s a supply and demand story, as usual. This real estate market suffers from a severe shortage of inventory, at a time when the demand from home buyers continues to soar. It’s no wonder the Boise real estate market is getting strong forecasts for 2021 and 2022.

Bold Forecast for Boise Housing Market Into 2022

As it turns out, a lot of folks are moving to Boise, Idaho and the surrounding area.

An ongoing influx of new residents has made a huge dent in the local real estate market. As of spring 2021, there aren’t nearly enough homes on the market to satisfy the demand from buyers. This trend has led to an unprecedented rise in home prices, across the Boise-area housing market.

Consider the numbers. According to the real estate data company Zillow, the median home value for the Boise-Nampa metropolitan area rose by a staggering 32.5% over the past year or so. The company also issued a strong forecast for this real estate market, extending into 2022.

In May 2021, Zillow’s website stated: “Boise City Metro home values have gone up 32.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 24.1% in the next year.”

We don’t know of any other city where house prices have risen by more than 30% over the past year. That’s a rare occurrence driven by an unusual set of circumstances.

As of April 2021, the median home value in the area was around $438,000. Ten years ago, the median price point was around $138,000. In other words, home prices within the Boise area real estate market have more than tripled in the last ten years or so. That puts it in a league of its own.

This trend has affected other cities in the area, as well. Home values in Nampa, Caldwell and Meridian have also risen substantially over the past few years.

A Tight Market Has Gotten Even Tighter

The bold forecasts for the Boise real estate market stretching into 2022 are largely driven by an ongoing supply shortage. Steady population growth and strong demand from home buyers have driven inventory levels to record lows across the metro area.

As of April 2021, the Boise-Nampa metro real estate scene had about a 0.5-month supply of homes for sale. Back in 2012, this housing market had closer to a six-month supply of homes available for buyers. So a lot has changed over the past decade, in terms of inventory.

Today, the Boise housing market has one of the lowest levels of inventory of any comparable-sized metro area in the U.S. These conditions have fueled bidding wars and pushed home prices to unprecedented levels. Home values within this housing market have never been higher than they are right now, and that’s primarily the result of low inventory conditions.

As you might imagine, houses tend to sell quickly within the Boise, Idaho the state market. Last month, homes listed for sale in the area spend a median of just five days on the market. That’s well below the national average and indicates a hyper-competitive and fast-moving real estate scene.

During the spring of 2021, most homes within the Boise housing market went under contract within two weeks of being listed. Home buyers planning to enter this market during the second half of 2021 will have to hustle to keep up. That’s the reality of the current real estate scene in Boise, and predictions suggest more of the same going into 2022.

Above-Average Population Growth Fueling the Fire

We just covered the supply side of the equation. On the demand side, steady population growth is giving the Boise real estate market a strong boost in 2021.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of Boise, Idaho rose by nearly 10% from 2010 into 2019.

Neighboring cities within the metro area experienced even greater growth over the past decade or so. For instance, the population of Meridian, Idaho rose by a staggering 48% from 2010 into 2019. The populations of Nampa and Caldwell both rose by more than 20% during that same nine-year period.

Affordability Issues Ahead?

You don’t have to be a housing analyst or economist to see what’s happening here. The Boise Metro area is experiencing unprecedented growth with a steady influx of new residents. And this growth has essentially overwhelmed the local real estate market.

The lopsided supply-and-demand situation has led to strong forecasts for the Boise real estate market extending into 2022. Granted, housing predictions are the equivalent of an educated guess. But it’s a pretty safe bet to assume that home values within the Boise area will continue to rise steadily through 2021 and into 2022. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.

Of course, there’s a downside to all of this. If the Boise real estate market continues to appreciate at a breakneck pace, more and more local residents will end up getting “priced out.” We’ve seen this same pattern in other cities across the country, including Seattle, Washington and (currently) Austin, Texas.

Eventually, housing affordability will become an issue within the Boise area. There will likely come a time when a person earning an average income for the area won’t be able to afford an average-priced home.

Disclaimer: This article includes forecasts and predictions for the Boise, Idaho real estate market in 2021 and 2022. Those projections were issued by third parties not associated with the publisher. The Home Buying Institute makes no claims about future housing or economic conditions.