Home values in most U.S. cities have risen steadily for the last few years, and a recent home-price forecast suggests this trend could continue into 2019.
A team of housing analysts and economists from Zillow recently published a home-price appreciation forecast for the 35 largest metro areas in the U.S. House values are expected to rise in these and most other parts of the country over the coming months.
According to an August 2018 news release from the company: “Home value growth is slowing in almost half of the 35 largest U.S. metros, with Sacramento and Seattle reporting the greatest slowdown since the beginning of the year.”
Despite this slowdown, they’ve also issued positive home-price appreciation forecasts for 34 out of the 35 metro areas in the report. In other words, house values aren’t rising as fast as they did over the last couple of years — but they’re still climbing.
Home Price Forecasts Into Summer 2019
The table below shows the 12-month home price outlook for the 35 largest housing markets in the U.S.
|Metropolitan Area||Home Value Forecast for Next Year*|
|Dallas-Fort Worth, TX||7.80%|
|Kansas City, MO||3.10%|
|Las Vegas, NV||8.00%|
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA||12.10%|
|Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL||5.40%|
|Minneapolis-St Paul, MN||6.10%|
|New York, NY||6.80%|
|San Antonio, TX||2.70%|
|San Diego, CA||4.70%|
|San Francisco, CA||7.50%|
|San Jose, CA||11.80%|
|St. Louis, MO||4.90%|
* Note: This home-price appreciation forecast was issued in August 2018. So the percentages shown in the right-hand column represent the company’s forecast for the next 12 months ending in August 2019.
For the most part, Zillow’s economists see house values rising over the coming months. And these 35 metro-area markets give us a pretty good indication of what their outlook is for the nation as a whole. While the amount of projected appreciation varies widely, the overall forecast is that prices will keep climbing into 2019.
Interesting Highlights from This Report
- The Los Angeles metro area (including Long Beach and Anaheim) received the biggest home-price forecast in this particular report, followed by San Jose. These and other California housing markets are currently experiencing a shortage of inventory relative to demand, which is putting a lot of upward pressure on house values.
- Out of the 35 metro areas on this list, Indianapolis was the only one with a negative home-price forecast. The company’s analysts expect to see a slight decline in the median home value for that market.
- Detroit, Michigan also got a strong forecast for house prices. Detroit was hit hard by the recession and suffered a long period of economic decline ending in bankruptcy. Today, however, new efforts are underway to renovate and revitalize neighborhoods, and demand from home buyers is pushing prices north.
Price Reductions More Common in Some Markets
The forecasts shown in the table above were part of a broader report that looked at price cuts in real estate markets across the country.
According to Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas, housing markets nationwide are showing early signs of a shift. For the past few years, most markets have favored sellers over buyers due to tight supply and strong demand. But that may be changing, and price cuts are one sign of this shift.
As Terrazas pointed out:
“A rising share of on-market listings are seeing price cuts, though these price cuts are concentrated at the most expensive price-points and primarily in markets that have seen outsized price gains in recent years. It’s far too soon to call this a buyer’s market, home values are still expected to appreciate at double their historic rate over the next 12 months, but the frenetic pace of the housing market over the past few years is starting to return toward a more normal trend.”
The take-home message: Industry forecasts suggest that home prices in most U.S. cities will continue rising through the rest of 2018 and into 2019. But price growth has slowed down, and some real estate markets are shifting away from the classic seller’s market and into more “neutral” territory.
Disclaimer: This article includes numerous predictions and forecasts for home prices across the U.S. Those projections were provided by third-party sources not associated with our company, and were presented here as an educational service to our readers. As a general rule, the Home Buying Institute makes no claims or assertions about future economic conditions.