Jacksonville Leads Housing Forecasts Among Florida’s Major Cities

Jacksonville waterfront

Florida’s statewide Realtor association recently issued an overall rosy assessment of the state’s real estate market. Forecasts from other industry groups suggest that home prices in Jacksonville could rise by double digits over the next year, outpacing most other Florida cities.

Forecasts for Biggest Housing Markets in Florida

According to a November 1, 2018 press release from Florida Realtors®, the state’s “housing market had more sales, higher median prices, more pending sales and more new listings in 3Q 2018,” compared to the same time a year ago.

That’s for the state as whole. But when it comes to buying a home, local conditions matter more than statewide trends. And home-price appreciation can vary widely from one city to the next. So we looked to the housing and economic research team at Zillow to see what they expect for 2019, at the city level.

As it turns out, Jacksonville has one of the strongest housing market forecasts stretching into 2019. Zillow’s analysts predicted that the median home value in Jacksonville would rise by a whopping 12.6% over the next year. (This forecast was issued at the end of October 2018, so it extends into the fall of 2019.)

For comparison, here are Zillow’s predictions for other major cities in Florida.

  • Tampa: At the end of October 2018, the median home value in Tampa was around $216,000. At that time, the company was predicting that the median would rise by 6% over the next 12 months.
  • Orlando: The median house value in Orlando, Florida rose to around $234,000 as of fall 2018. That was a gain of roughly 10% from a year earlier. Looking forward, the group predicts that the median home price in Orlando will rise by 5% through fall of 2019.
  • St. Petersburg: The housing market in St. Petersburg has also experienced double-digit home price growth over the last year or so. By Zillow’s estimate, the median value rose 12.1% over the past 12 months (as of November 1, 2018). Their one-year forecast for this market calls for an additional gain of 5% over the next year.
  • Tallahassee: Among the major cities in Florida, Tallahassee had one of the lowest median home values. Zillow estimated it at $177,400, as of November 1. They predicted that the median home price in Tallahassee would rise by 4.3% over the coming year.
  • Sarasota: The real estate market in Sarasota has experienced smaller price gains than the cities listed above. The median home value for the city rose 5% over the past year, with a 12-month forecast calling for an additional 4% in appreciation.
  • Miami: As of fall 2018, the median house price within the Miami real estate market had reached $333,600. That marked a rise of about 4.6% over the previous year. The company’s economists predicted that the median value would rise by 3.6% over the next year or so.
  • Palm Beach: One of Florida’s most expensive real estate markets, Palm Beach has experienced a leveling of home values. In fact, Zillow reported a slight dip in the median home value for Palm Beach over the past year. Looking forward, however, they predict that the median price point will rise by 2.5% over the next year.
  • Cape Coral: Among the major Florida cities on this list, Cape Coral had the weakest housing market forecast extending over the next 12 months. At least, in terms of price growth. As of November 1, 2018, Zillow was forecasting a one-year change of just 0.1% for this market.

Granted, these are just forecasts. They are the equivalent of an educated guess based on current housing trends and expectations for the near future. So we probably shouldn’t get too hung up on the exact numbers being forecasted here.

The big takeaway here is that, while home prices across Florida are expected to rise in 2019, conditions can vary quite a bit at the city level. Home buyers who are planning to enter the real estate market in 2019 should research local conditions, as part of their preparation.

Disclaimer: This article contains predictions and forecasts for various housing markets across Florida. Those forward-looking statements were issued by third parties not associated with our company. As a general rule, the Home Buying Institute does not make claims or assertions about future housing conditions.