Phoenix, Arizona Real Estate Market Forecast for 2017

Home values in Phoenix rose steadily and sharply in 2016, climbing 9% to 11% depending on the source. But 2017 forecasts for the Phoenix housing market suggest that prices could rise more slowly over the next year or so.

In a somewhat contradicting report, the National Association of Realtors made a prediction that Phoenix would be the hottest real estate market in the country in 2017.

Phoenix Housing Market Forecast for 2017

According to the real estate data company Zillow, home prices in Phoenix, Arizona rose by 9.4% from December 2015 to December 2016. This is based on their own proprietary method for measuring median home values.

Be number one

By contrast, house prices nationwide rose by around 6% in 2016. So by this measurement, the Phoenix real estate market outpaced the nation in terms of home-price appreciation.

But what about next year? What’s the forecast for the Phoenix housing market in 2017? According to the research team at Zillow, home prices in the city will rise by around 3.7% during 2017. While that’s a lower level of appreciation than 2016, it’s still a healthy (and historically normal) year-over-year increase.

The economists at realtor.com® have a somewhat different view. They don’t think the Phoenix real estate market will slow down that much in 2017. In fact, they recently predicted that it will be the #1 housing market in the country in 2017, in a ranking that looked at 100 metro areas nationwide. The company’s economists expect home prices in Phoenix to rise by 5.9% next year, with a 7.2% increase in home sales (year over year).

Here’s a snapshot of their top housing markets list for 2017:

Hottest housing markets 2017
Top 10 housing markets of 2017. Source: realtor.com.

So what’s behind the top-ranked forecast for the Phoenix real estate market in 2017? What market factors are driving these predictions? Inventory has a lot to do with it. Or rather, the lack of inventory.

There is currently a lot of demand for housing in Phoenix, Arizona, particularly among retiring baby boomers who often relocate to the area. But there’s not enough inventory to satisfy the current level of demand, and this is pushing home prices north.

Buying a Home Now Versus Later

While home prices might rise more slowly in 2017 than they did this year, they are still predicted to rise steadily throughout the year. And that’s the key takeaway here, from a home-buying perspective. Forget about all of the “hottest housing market” rankings for a moment. The bottom line is that Phoenix home buyers who postpone their purchases until later in 2017 will likely pay more for a house.

Granted, you should never buy a home until you’re financially and emotionally ready for it. At the same time, you have to keep an eye on market trends. And the market is clearly trending upward right now.

Mortgage Rates on the Rise

Mortgage rates shot up over the last few weeks, and they’re expected to continue rising gradually throughout 2017. This is another important housing forecast for Phoenix home buyers, because it impacts buying power. Here are the latest trends on the mortgage front.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, the following chart speaks volumes. This chart accompanied the latest release of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of the mortgage market. The big spike on the far-right side represents the last few weeks. As you can see, mortgage rates have risen sharply recently.

Mortgage rate trends December
Mortgage rate trends through December 8, 2016. Source: Freddie Mac.

Looking forward, both Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association have predicted that rates will rise gradually during 2017. Granted, we probably won’t see any more big spikes like this one. But mortgage rates could inch upward over the next 12 months. That’s the forecast being offered by industry watchers, and it’s another important point to consider when planning to buy a home.

Disclaimer: This story contains predictions and forecasts for the Phoenix, Arizona real estate market in 2017. Data and projections were compiled from third-party sources not associated with our company. We have presented them here as an educational service to our readers.