Key highlights from this report:
- The housing market in Tampa, Florida remains hot in 2020.
- Home prices in the city are expected to rise steadily into 2021.
- These forecasts are the result of tight supply and strong demand.
What will the Tampa real estate market do in 2020? Will home prices in the area keep climbing, as they did throughout 2019? Or will the local housing scene finally begin to cool down?
These are some of the most common questions among local home buyers. Here’s an updated look at some of the biggest market trends that are affecting home buyers in Tampa, Florida and the surrounding area.
Forecast for Tampa: More of the Same
The first thing home buyers need to know is that house values in Tampa are still rising steadily. In fact, they’re outpacing the gains seen in many other major cities across the U.S.
According to a recent (January) update to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, house values in Tampa rose by 5% from November 2019 to November 2019. That put the city ahead of most other major metros in the country, in terms of year-over-year price growth.
According to the January 2020 Case-Shiller report:
“Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In November, Phoenix led the way with a 5.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a 5.2% increase and Tampa with a 5.0% increase.”
The real estate information website Zillow also reports steady home-price gains for the Tampa, Florida housing market in 2020. In February, the company’s research team stated that the city’s median home value had risen by 3.9% over the previous year. Looking ahead, they predicted a similar gain of 4% over the next 12 months (through February 2021).
The median house price for the area is currently around $242,000.
While the numbers vary from one source to the next, there appears to be a general consensus in terms of the real estate market forecast for Tampa, Florida. Prices are expected to continue rising through this year and into 2021.
Buying a Home Cheaper Than Renting in 2020
Those who are on the fence between renting or buying a home in Tampa, Florida have some new data to guide their decision making. A recent real estate industry report showed that buying a home is currently more affordable than renting in the Tampa area, on average.
This report was published in January by ATTOM Data Solutions, a company that specializes in residential real estate data. According to their report:
“Counties with a population of at least 1 million, where buying a home is more affordable than renting, were Miami-Dade County, FL; Broward County, FL; Wayne County (Detroit), MI; Philadelphia County, PA; Hillsborough County (Tampa), FL; Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), PA.”
For a city of its size, Tampa offers relatively affordable home prices. Thirty-year mortgage rates, meanwhile, are still hovering well below the 4% range according to Freddie Mac. These trends create a favorable environment for home buyers in the area.
For many Tampa residents, buying a house in 2020 could be more affordable than renting over the long term.
Housing Inventory Remains Lower Than Usual
The real estate market in Tampa is not as “tight” as in some other major cities across the U.S. But there is still a shortage of supply relative to the number of buyers in the market. As a result, anyone planning to buy a home in or around the city will want to start early and remain open-minded.
According to the real estate brokerage Redfin, the Tampa area had about a three-month supply of homes for sale as of January 2020. That was lower than the national average during the same time period (and even the national supply level was low by historical standards).
This is another reason why housing analysts are issuing positive home-price forecasts for the Tampa real estate market through 2020. Steady demand and limited inventory have combined to put upward pressure on home values.
Houses are selling fairly quickly in this Florida city, mainly due to the reasons cited above. In January, the median number of “days on market” for Tampa’s housing market was well below the national average for the same month. That’s another indicator of strong demand among buyers.
Tampa Experiencing Significant Population Population
Population growth has a lot to do with the strong forecasts being issued for the Tampa real estate market. Population increases tend to bolster demand for housing on both the rental and purchase side. And that’s exactly what we are seeing in this part of Florida, as of late-winter 2020.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the city of Tamp’s population grew by a whopping 16.9% from April 2010 to July 2019. For comparison, the national growth rate was closer to 6% during that same time period.
The city’s population is fast approaching the 400,000-resident mark. The population for the broader Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area has risen above 3 million people and continues to rise.
The bottom line here is that the city’s population is growing much faster than the national average, and that has increased demand for housing. It’s just one more factor contributing to the positive housing market forecast for Tampa, Florida in 2020.
Disclaimer: This article includes predictions and outlooks issued by third-party sources not associated with the Home Buying Institute. Such predictions are the equivalent of an educated guess and should be treated as such. HBI makes no claims or assertions about future real estate trends.